Great points all.

I share ptv's misgiving about leakage. The rear door window's curve at top would have made a spring-loaded cover like the front all but impossible, which probably would have led to a fixed channel solution like hardtop coupe, which would have meant the rear window would have needed to open slightly every time the door was opened. I think we can all agree that fixed window frames would have been the best solution. They could have still been made to look hardtop-like, see Nash Golden Airflyte.

Steve has always advocated for a longer rear overhang and deck on Senior Packards and select Juniors. The Caribbean accomplished this for the fenders but not the decklid and it is here where Nance needed to take action especially after watching Cadillac give Coupe de Ville the 60 Special's long deck for 1952. As it was a Caribbean customer had to reach 9 inches further to grab things in the trunk and even this required that they stand to one side of the rear mount.

So with all of this in mind here's an update to what would correctly be called Sport Sedan. It has fixed chrome window frames, a chrome-covered B-pillar per bkazmer that I was able to skinny up a bit because its no longer a hardtop, elimination of rear mount and lengthening of deck. My pixel count says Caribbean's rear fenders were lengthened somewhere in neighborhood of 4 inches over Patrician. With its rear fenders now tucked back in the overall length would have been around 220.5 inches, which is a bit light vs 60 Special but commendable nonetheless and the continental spare could have still be offered as an option.

I think Nance needed to make some hard decisions for '54. He needed to rein in Packard even as he expanded into the luxury market, so this was definitely not the time to continue turning Clipper into its own brand. That said, with no sore thumb fenders Clipper would have needed something to freshen it. Seems to me the easiest solution would have been to use Patrician's rear fender stamping, trimmed back 5 inches. With bulls-nuts taillights, Clipper's status would have marginally increased and the car would have looked a little different from previous year. All fine but the 2-door club sedan would have needed dropped because there was no bulls-nuts coupe fender available. Nor would there have been a Panama. Austerity and cost containment at the low end would have needed to be the order of the day.

Cavalier and Patrician also needed to take a haircut, in fact one could argue they needed scalped. Definitely no new backlight, instead use of Clipper's. With the 122 Clipper sedan and 127 P/C sedans now looking almost identical except for a 5 inch wheelbase difference, seems they could have all been grouped under one name. Clipper, Cavalier, Patrician, Panama... somebody roll the dice. As a bonus the 149 wb car would already have these design cues. The entire series could have used '54 Cavalier's side trim that year and '54 Patrician's side trim for '55, the big news being the V8. 1956 would have seen an all-new car paid for in part by a hoped for more financially healthy 1954.


5/1 EDIT: lowered the Pan Am-style hood to standard height. Production Caribbean series (5-10K sales per year) could not have afforded the hand labor needed to modify each hood).

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And finally... '54 Caribbean's brochure copy spoke directly to this type of car. Only needed "sedan" added in a few places as shown. Of course, leather would not have been the only interior material offered.

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Here's a match-up with '54 60 Special. This work-up lowers Packard's window sills an inch and puts the handles on the doors, which is the execution that Reinhart had wanted for the '51 cars. By 1954 it would have really helped keep Packard competitive with Cadillac's airy greenhouse.

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Based on one-off '53 Mayfair with Caribbean rear and '54 trim that some of you might be familiar with. The work-up depicts a 127 wb hardtop sedan with overall length of 225-9/32 inches, competitive with 60 Special. What if Nance for '54 had chosen to tool Caribbean rear fenders instead of Clipper sore thumbs, and use them to go after Cadillac with a fully in-house built convertible, hardtop coupe and hardtop sedan. Sedan would need a 5 inch longer hardtop roof that was either new tooled or lengthened using coupe stamping. 1955 would get the V8, 1956 an all-new body?

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Much has been made of Christopher's infamous "that G-D Senior stuff" in reference to the mid-late 30s traditional models. Looking at Dave's profit table the year's 1932-33 suggest a break-even of around 9200 vehicles. Given that the Seniors never reached that after 1933 and fell woefully short by 1938, my only complaint about Christopher's comment is that he didn't affix more expletives.

Thanks Dave, very informative. Greatly appreciate the time and effort that you and Mr. Balfour spent pulling this together.

Will take some time to unpack and like Tim said, will need to take into account the things that effect direct comparison between years. Inflation is one. The other big drivers are corporate tax rates and defense profits. The tax rates jumped way up for Contours and gouged profits. Defense work hurt profits during production setup, helped once on line and at capacity.

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Absolutely Dave. Give us the food we hunger for!

Thanks JD, appreciate the heads-up. Have changed the image's title, don't like being knowingly in error. Spend enough time unknowingly so...


"What if only the center section is cross-hatched (like a senior) but all the way down?"

Let's take a look, bkazmer. Have included a bonus (aka mistake) on far right, having accidentally lowered the center section all the way down to the bumper on my first attempt. Maybe it could have worked too. For both mods the problem area would have been the intersection of horizontal bars inter center grill because they are not on the same plane. Horizontal bars would have either needed beveled at the intersection or boxed in with a vertical piece alongside the grill. Both would have looked odd but the design could have been resolved with who-knows-what solution had the designers set out to make the center section taller in the first place.


Steve - agreed, a '49 Ford share was out of the question. Pondering the Lincoln share, if nothing else it points to the need to field two cars, one delivering volume, the other prestige, both with healthy profit. No question Cadillac lived off the Buick 70 share, that was its key. Luxury and near luxury. Packard's lux and near lux carried same name and general appearance, probably resulting in a fair amount of cannibalization of the top car over the years. A different brand in the near luxury space might have prevented that - Commodore or a more gussied up Ambassador - or more differentiation between the two Packard-branded cars. 23rd Series Super Eight moving from 122 to 127 chassis and offering a Deluxe trim is classic example of Junior eating Senior.

Confounding things is fact that Packard's dealers needed a volume car to stay alive, something well below near-luxury. Either that or Packard needed to make its cars so darn superior that per unit profits became highest in industry and everyone - dealers and factory - were able to live a healthy life on 50K units per year. See mid to late 1920s.


3/24 EDIT: beveled the horizontal bars at intersection with center grill, and refined image on right above bumper.

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The 48's smooth exterior lines must have been a revelation at the time, very modern and elegant. Seems the design was a stand-out initially in both the press and public's eye, benefiting greatly from Cadillac having a very late launch of its all new post-war design and Nash and Lincoln not appearing until '49. Once all those cars hit the road Packard's shortcomings became apparent. It was comparatively tall and still had a pre-war windshield with split flat glass. And the 4 door sedan didn't have much bustle in the rear, which had been fine with the original Clipper because its body pinch-in gave the wide rear a visual mass that balanced better with the trimmer front.

My biggest beef with the '48 is its front appearance. There are effectively two different grills stacked on top of each other. This is where Macauley's Phantom could have helped, its two grill areas seamlessly unified. Am starting to wonder if such a modified '48 front could have been married to the '46 Clipper body to create a '47-48 refresh called Phantom.

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Steve's analysis of Ed Maucaley's Phantom design explorations spurred me to take a closer look at that idea car. There is something very intriguing about its circa 1944 "mouth organ" grill and quad lights. What if Packard had chosen to do an all-new bathtub for 1949 after concluding that it was the best use of funds, and sought only to refresh Clipper using Phantom for ideas? Tooling two new hoods would have been expensive so let's assume these would have been carried over. The '46 Clipper grill appears to already have been influenced by Phanton though its center section is separate from the carried over lower horizontal elements. A minimalist rendition of the mouth organ needing only new front fenders and quad lights, see middle image ('46 Clipper is at left). A more extensive refresh could have redesigned the entire grill to be fully unified, which would have made the vertical portion wider. Along with that change could have been removal of the integrated running boards. See image on right.

Phantom images:

http://theoldmotor.com/?p=156813

EDIT: Correction on image at right. Vertical portion of grill would not have been wider. Phantom transitions the vertical to horizontal grill sections with a radius, see updated image.

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