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"Ultramatic was standard equipment on the 23rd Series Custom [1949]."

Thanks JD, table has been updated.

If the Caddy sales look weak for 1948 despite the all-new desgin, here's why:

"The '48 Caddy didn't get into production until late February 1948, and went on sale in dealer showrooms in March. The model year thus spanned a short nine months. Demand was higher than supply, but there was only time to build 52,706 cars for the '48 model run."

Courtesy this wonderful website that has educated me for years.

http://www.100megsfree4.com/cadillac/cad1940/cad48sa.htm

And it means that the 1947 Cadillac model year ran extra long, which makes the '47 Packard One Eighty Clipper's sales look that much more impressive versus Cadillac. For a brief moment in time Packard had caught Cadillac. Well, almost... have heard that Cadillac had a long waiting list in these years. But then again, wouldn't they have made all the 60 Specials they could to maximize profit, just as Packard probably did with its One Eighty Clipper?

Because post-war production of Super and Custom Eights didn't begin until later in 1946 it may have been the case that the 1947 versions benefited from pent-up demand. We know that production of all American vehicles in these years was being jacked around by quotas, steel shortages and a host of other factors so its is hard to draw many firm conclusions. One thing does seem apparent: the 1948 Packards hit the mark initially but proved to be flash-in-the-pans. Perhaps at first glance their clean sides made them look fresh and ultra modern.

Note Cadillac's power deficit throughout the 1940s. Didn't seem to matter. What was so special about Cadillac? Was it the automatic transmission or was there more?

"If you look at performance, Packard enjoys an advantage in power/weight until mid-fifties, well after the Caddy V8 intro. To me, these tables again show that the smaller company's tooling costs kept models in production longer, which became an increasing problem."

Point well taken. My question is, did this really need to be a problem? In 1937, Packard sold 1300 Twelves despite wearing a 3-year old body and facing competition (Cadillac) with more modern all-steel, streamlined and quite beautiful bodies. For Packard, timeless design had staying power.

Cadillac sold the same body from 1950-53 so for Packard to have sold the same one from 1951-54 need not have been a problem. Had Packard consistently sold more cars and/or a richer mix they would have earned enough money to completely redesign for 1955 and again for 1959, and 1963, etc. By the mid-Sixties even Cadillac had to throttle back and keep the same basic body shell for a longer period. Cadillac platforms were already on extended lifecycles, the 1959-64 cars being common as were the 1965-76 cars. Mercedes S-Class ran from 1973-79 and again from 1980-89.

Am looking at Table 2 and thinking that by 1953 Packard had all the features it needed to take Cadillac head-on except for an OHV V8. OK, so it didn't have a V8. Somehow the idea that a V8 would have sold lots more 1951-54 Packards doesn't quite jive. Buick continued with its inline Eight through 1952 with no let-up in sales. Hudson and Nash finally got their V8 in 1955 and look how much good it did them. I think there was more to Packard's challenges than lack of a V8.

Steve pointed out that Cadillac offered the same A/C system that Packard used, became available one year later and ended after 1942 just like Packard. Have updated Table 2 to reflect.

Checked the Crestline book on Cadillac, confirmed the 1941-42 A/C and also that the Bendix Hydrovac power brake system became an option beginning in 1954. (Steve - I couldn't find anything in Chrestline on the '53 Eldorado having power brakes.) So score one for Packard, it beat Cadillac by 2 years.

Chrestline also said that for the 1946 MY, Cadillac initially only made Series 62 sedans. Models like the 60 Special didn't become available for many months. It also said there was a waiting list for all cars and one had to know someone to get one sooner rather than later. White wall tires were hard to find and some Cadillacs were shipped with wood bumpers then retrofitted at the dealer (or even later?).

"Perhaps another factor is that to me the typical "high pockets" 51-54 interior is restrained, elegant while the Caddy has more bling - was the luxury buyer then looking for a flashier design?"

Yes. The '51 Patrician instrument panel probably had enough chrome but Cadillac's may have looked more modern to shoppers of the day. Your comment speaks to a crucial element: appearance played a major role in Packard's fortunes. At least that's how I read the data in the tables. And Packard's simmering problems rose to a boil the day Cadillac's sizzling '48 60 Special was introduced.

In trying to answer the thread's original questions, sometimes it's better to start at the end and work backwards. We know Cadillac made a big splash with its first 4-door hardtop, the Sedan DeVille in 1956. What if Packard had been going toe-to-toe with Cadillac in the decade leading up to that car's intro? What would Packard's version have looked like? Let's make the rules simple: suggestions need to work with the Packard design theme offered that year.

I won't bother trying to explain the visual suggestion below and the changes made to the production Caribbean, it either "works" or it doesn't. That's how buyers look at cars. So if you would, please answer these simple questions: would this suggestion have been competitive with Cadillac in 1956 and would it have been worthy of Packard's traditional "Senior" status? If both answers are yes, we have something to work backward from. If not, we go back to the drawing board.

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Hi Paul

Interesting questions, will have to ponder before responding.

For now, for comparison, the '56 Sedan de Ville:

Steve

Now, pondered for a while, this Caribbean four door hardtop would definitely have upped their competitive position against Cadillac. For it to succeed, it would have had to come to market without all the baggage of quality problems, poor dealer coverage and shaky corporate financial news making all but the hardcore loyalist wary of buying again.

in the context of the times, it would easily be worthy of the traditional Senior status. Probably more so than some of the prior efforts which lack the verve of the pre-war Seniors.

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"For it to succeed, it would have had to come to market without all the baggage of quality problems, poor dealer coverage and shaky corporate financial news making all but the hardcore loyalist wary of buying again."

Thanks for weighing in Steve and I'm glad you brought up those complicating factors because they cloud any analysis of 1955-56. To remove the "noise" lets go back to 1953 when the quality, dealer coverage and financial news were much healthier, the cars had all the convenience features and technology that Cadillac had except for an OHV V8, and Nance's new marketing initiatives had kicked in. How come the '53 Patrician sales were less than half the 60 Special despite the Patrician costing $500 less? Would an OHV V8 have made significant inroads into this sales and price deficit? I doubt it. Look at Table 2. Packard bested Cadillac in horsepower 10 of 14 years from 1940-56 yet Cadillac outsold Packard all 14 years, usually handily. So much for horsepower.

And what about 1955 and the arrival of Packard's supposed savior, the OHV V8. And with it, styling and suspension upgrades. Result? Same sales deficit to 60 Special as in 1951 and now with a price deficit of $700. Did Packard's late intro in 1955 and its poor quality and inability to produce really cut Patrician sales in half? Or force its pricing to be $700 less? No, it didn't.

There were other factors - product planning choices - fully within Packard's control that were the cause. But it wasn't Christopher who chose to walk away from the Seniors or sell less than he could. The guy sold almost as many '47 Customs as Cadillac sold 60 Specials. Old George didn't do the Seniors any favors with his styling preferences but it was Ferry and the 1949-51 Board that took a clean sheet of paper and an obvious competitive benchmark and blatantly abdicated the thrown. Look at Table 1. There is no Senior in the 1951 line-up! Because of this, there was none through 1956. We get back to the question of what made a Senior a Senior, and perhaps by extension what made a Packard a Packard.

As follow-up I'd like to offer a few more thought-starters focused on 1951.

The '56 Caribbean 4-dr hardtop mod shown earlier started with a production Caribbean on 127 inch wheelbase and:

- extended the roof rearward 5 inches to make it Patrician-sized
- moved the front wheels forward 5 inches, adding 5 inches to the hood
- extended the rear overhang 5 inches
- added front and rear doors of similar size to Patrican
- eliminated the exposed body spacer between front and rear doors
- increased the wheelbase from 127 to 132 inches
- increased the overall length from 218.6 to 228.6 inches

With all, the car grew to 60 Special dimensions and brought the hood and decklid into more balanced proportion with the longer greenhouse. This was key to creating a Senior that the customer would see as equal to the 60 Special and a step above Lincoln and Imperial.

Precident? For Packard to have offered two hood lengths from 1951-56 would have simply been the continuation of a practice used from 1924-50 (and early-mid teens?). Extending the rear overhang and decklid would have simply been copying the '48 and later 60 Special. Why did Packard avoid both for 1951? Probably because of cost.

The thing is, Packard might have been able to do both while largely avoiding the extra cost. More to come in next post along with the usual array of images.

Hi Paul

As definition, what constituted a senior line by 1950 had pretty much distilled down to a longer wheelbase, better trimmed and equipped version of the standard six passenger sedan plus lwb eight passenger sedan and limousine. Later, the premium convertible and hardtop with unique styling joined the club. The consistent cash cow was definitely the first listed, then the latter two, the LWB models great for prestige. Not even a special engine was required. All this was within Packard's ability, if only leadership had the drive to compete for their share.

"..........product planning choices - fully within Packard's control that were the cause."

Let credit fall where credit is do, the abdication of true senior models was made by Christopher's successors. As of the 1951 models, the only "Senior" left was the Patrician 400 sedan opposing only the Series 62 sedan. A 400-level hardtop coupe was discussed during 24th Series product planning but tabled. Apparently the then current resounding success of the Coupe de Ville wasn't enough motivation to try for a piece of that market until 1954. How glaringly poorly the Patrician fared versus 62 sedan isn't so much a surprise given Cadillac's steamroller sales momentum. What is is how poorly is sold versus the rejuvenated Chrysler Imperial, coming from near zero two year prior, saddled with stodgy styling but packing the Hemi V8 that was the talk of the industry. Some of that is attributable to better market coverage, some to the Chrysler loyalist ready to step up. But, given the excitement surrounding the Hemi and V8's in general, a good share might well have been directly motivated by exactly that.

The last point at which a V8 might have turned the tide toward or at least stemmed the ebb from Packard was the 1953 model year; by 1955 it was just EGB finally catching up. While the availability of a V8 may not have been a great inducement; but the lack thereof was one more reason not to buy a Packard. Straight eights now had the stigma of 'old-fashioned'. Pontiac and Buick could get away with fielding one a bit longer as lower-middle models, carried by their sales momentum. Packard couldn't. Packard only had to worry about the new Buick Super with its detuned nailhead, Specials being below the cheapest Clippers. 1953 looked fine relative to Clipper's competitors, the telling result would be next year when the thoroughly modern Olds 98 and Buick Century made choosing the Clipper over those a very difficult decision. The new Roadmaster, 62, 60 Special and Coupe de Ville were now posed to push Packard to the brink.

The specs sound perfect, bring on the variations!

Steve