Re: 1952 Packard Statistic

Posted by BigKev On 2012/6/15 23:51:07

I have a computer algorithm I wrote awhile back that estimates the surviving number of cars based on a yearly "decay" rate. Basically you input the number of cars made, and the year of the car and it comes back with an estimate on the number of cars left.

So for example on my car model '54 Clipper Deluxe (5492) there were 7610 units produced. So after 58 years, the estimated remaining number is 399 cars left. That would include running and parts cars.

That number is based on a 5% yearly decay rate. So every year the number of cars left drops by %5.

This applies to cars in general. Obviously there are special and rare models that were more coveted and their attrition is probably far less as there were driven less and looked after better. Like Caribbean's or Darrin's for example.