Re: Would it have been easier to salvage Packard than Studebaker?
Posted by Mahoning63 On 2010/11/24 15:28:32
I threw some data from the Standard Catalog of American Cars into a spreadsheet to see the sales numbers from 1951-1962. The reason that I posted the concurrent "1955-57 Line-Up What-if" thread is that I had looked earlier at each competitor and got the impression that there was an opportunity for Packard to shift to the luxury and near-luxury market in 1955 and with the right car, to have gotten on a survival path that would have included the 1958 redesign and beyond. Now that I see the data in chart and graph form, am even more convinced.
Some observations:
1) The luxury market did not collapse in 1954, Packard collapsed.
2) the luxury market took a hit in 1958/59 but it was not a complete collapse, and bounced back nicely during the early 60s despite the compact car boom. From there it only grew larger.
3) The near-luxury market ($3,500 - $4,000 in 1955 dollars) jumped up and down quite a bit because players were entering and exiting constantly (and because I chose an arbitrary cut-ff) but overall, the trend was up and the market was significant.
4) Had Packard captured 20% of each of these two markets, and generated higher margins than the Clipper, they could have survived either as an Independent or an attractive merger partner with AMC or even Chrylser, given the lackluster Imperial sales.
Some may ask, why bother trying to figure out if Packard could have survived? I have a personal reason: it's good training in case the opportunity ever arises to run a company or do anything that involves strategic planning. Plus of course, I love the cars.
Paul
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Some observations:
1) The luxury market did not collapse in 1954, Packard collapsed.
2) the luxury market took a hit in 1958/59 but it was not a complete collapse, and bounced back nicely during the early 60s despite the compact car boom. From there it only grew larger.
3) The near-luxury market ($3,500 - $4,000 in 1955 dollars) jumped up and down quite a bit because players were entering and exiting constantly (and because I chose an arbitrary cut-ff) but overall, the trend was up and the market was significant.
4) Had Packard captured 20% of each of these two markets, and generated higher margins than the Clipper, they could have survived either as an Independent or an attractive merger partner with AMC or even Chrylser, given the lackluster Imperial sales.
Some may ask, why bother trying to figure out if Packard could have survived? I have a personal reason: it's good training in case the opportunity ever arises to run a company or do anything that involves strategic planning. Plus of course, I love the cars.
Paul
Attach file:
(25.94 KB)
(27.82 KB)
(130.88 KB)
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