Re: Survival rates of pre-war cars

Posted by BigKev On 2011/1/11 12:59:26

Here is a little simulation I ran which shows the Survival Population of a car model over a span of 75 years. This is based upon a 5% attrition rate per year.

For for example is we start with 10000 car,, after 1 year only 9500 would still be around. Based on this formula:

ThisYearsPopulation = (LastYearsPopulation * (.05))

So for year 2 we run the same calculation again. So from 9500 cars we end up with 9025.

Rinse and repeat.

Obviously this is a generalization and doesn't take into account collector status of a particular model vehicle and other economic and world events (WWI scrap drives, etc). I actually think in some terms this 5% rate is generous, and the rate is actually closer to 8% or 9%.

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