Quote:
Guscha wrote:
Thomas,
you might be interested to read this thread.
Given that the members of PackardInfo are a representative sample of Packard owners your graphs seem to contradict or at least not to support another, more linear hypothesis ("attrition rate").
Again, keep up the good work!
Guscha,
The data suggest that for the 12th through 22nd series, car survival does not reach zero, but reaches some relatively consistent proportion of the total produced. For example, after a period of attrition, approximately 1% of a years production remains in collectors hands.
For that time frame, PInfo registered cars very closely track 0.4% of production. So, if, as has been suggested, that pre-war production survival is around 1%, then 40% of the surviving cars are represented in the Owner's Registry.
The data for post war is particularly striking, and really argues against a general attrition rate being responsible for what cars survive today. There are probably plenty of cars in the registry for that time frame for statistical validity (unlike the 3rd-11th series), but there is absolutely no correlation between production and cars registered. Given that it has been over 55 years since the last 'true' Packard, I don't think this is a result of the 'attrition' hypothesis. It is also clearn not a result of some set percentage of vehicle production surviving.
Some possible hypotheses for post-war data are:
1) collectors of these vehicles are more active online, and so more likely to register their cars.
2) Packards have cachet, but Packard's with a Packard V-8 are freaking irresistible.
3) Many more living car collectors could have been conceived in a Packard V-8 than in other production years, so those years have a greater nostalgia value.
Tom
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