Re: How many Packards are left?
Posted by portlandon On 2010/1/8 18:45:09
Quote:
I typed 1% but meant to type 10%.
Example:
10,000 of car X manufactured in 1911. with a 50% gone by 1961 the 10% per year loss rate is quite reasonable.(to me anyways)
by 1961 there are 5,000 left
by 1971 there are 4,500 left
by 1981 there are 4,000 left
by 1991 there are 3,500 left
by 2001 there are 3,000 left
by 2011 there are 2,500 left
Now 2,500 cars on the planet spread out globally is a completely reasonable number. For example, that is 50 cars per state in the U.S.
Quote:
Just an equation I thought was reasonable. I wouldn't apply it to the Big 3 manufactured cars. There are always exceptions I am sure.
If I understand your hypothesis, you're saying that of cars 100 years old, 5% remain. Seems unrealistic, it's probably more like 1/10 of 1%.
I typed 1% but meant to type 10%.
Example:
10,000 of car X manufactured in 1911. with a 50% gone by 1961 the 10% per year loss rate is quite reasonable.(to me anyways)
by 1961 there are 5,000 left
by 1971 there are 4,500 left
by 1981 there are 4,000 left
by 1991 there are 3,500 left
by 2001 there are 3,000 left
by 2011 there are 2,500 left
Now 2,500 cars on the planet spread out globally is a completely reasonable number. For example, that is 50 cars per state in the U.S.
Quote:
What was the source for that statement?
Just an equation I thought was reasonable. I wouldn't apply it to the Big 3 manufactured cars. There are always exceptions I am sure.
This Post was from: https://packardinfo.com/xoops/html/modules/newbb/viewtopic.php?post_id=44720