Re: Survival rates of pre-war cars

Posted by BigKev On 2011/1/11 22:02:13

Just for clarification; the %5 rate I listed above is not the survival rate, but the yearly attrition rate. So basically every year the current population of a said model drops %5. The next year it drops another %5 from that years current population and so on.

So the physical number of cars that drop of into oblivion is less every year as the population decreases. So for example my a car, a 5492 Clipper Deluxe Touring Sedan, had a total production run of 7,610 cars. So based on my model, after 56 years @ %5 attrition per year, the estimated number of cars left would be 431 cars.

Now obviously this wont work for every model, for example a 55 Caribbean, with a production run of 500 units would only have 29 cars left after 55 years of attrition. But obviously the survival rate is higher on these cars as the became collectable the moment they were produced.

So I think the rate works pretty well for "common\pedestrian" models that were not generally keep as collectables from day one, but not for models that were prized from day one.