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Has anybody ever compiled even a statistical guess at the number of pre-war cars that "survive", and by that I mean simply still exist?

they made about 28,000 of my chassis, after 82 years, how many are left?

There have been some studies and estimates for specific years and models, I don't have those handy but I'll look for them. But you can get a fair idea, one year and model relative to another, but just counting those listed in the major club directories. Almost certainly the highest survival rate prewar is for the Twelves, and I'd guess 1934 has the highest survival of the Twelves; of the 960 built 71 show up in PAC's directory and there are several more that are known but not listed, and probably a few more languishing away yet to be "found". Compare that to similar data for the 1934 Eights, of 5120 built the directory shows about 80, and perhaps another 40 or so known.

As you get to the higher production lesser models, there are probably relatively more existing that aren't listed in club directories.

I know this doesn't answer your question, but I hope it's at least somewhat useful to you.

When I was researching the prewar ('41-'42) Clippers, I read somewhere that the survival rate for those models was relatively low because many were used as donor cars after the war for the '46's and '47's involved in accidents, etc, as they had the same body parts. Makes some sense....there seems to be more post was Clippers around than the prewar models.

Another reason would be that nearly twice as many 46-47 Clippers were built as were in 41-42; 81,879 vs. 46,524 according to data in the Turnquist and Dawes books. And of course being newer cars would inherently raise the survival rate a bit.

Several months ago someone (i think it was Owen) indicated that a general rule of thumb survival rate is about 1% (one %) of total production. THis 1% estimate seems to be a fairly accurate estimate based on my and others rudimentary research of other badges.

Extremely low production or custom built factory models will probably range closer to 100% survival rate. They would have to. OTherwise such models would become extinct and thus only legend or just speculation of ever existing.


Not PREwar, but i have somekind of a roster here, i think it is a PI roster, not sure. Got it 7 or 8 years ago and don;t remeber where i got. IT's a roster for the 56's. Apparently 276 (that's all of them) 56 Carribeans (5699) are accounted for according to this roster. All other models listed in the roster are in the neighborhood of 60 to 200 units/model accounted for. I'll dig it out if there's any more interest.

We also have to remeber that many great prewar cars were sold for War Effort scrap too.

About 80 of the 276 1956 Caribbean convertibles are accounted for in rosters of the Packard clubs, and perhaps another 20 or so known of. Perhaps a few more lurking out there "undiscovered".

Sure, the survival % of the really rare and limited series customs can be quite high; in some cases the number known today exceeds the number built originally due to the availability of replica bodies and the like so some real knowledge of the individual car's history is needed when doing survival research on such models.

Thanks for the update Owen. I've often wondered about the origin/validity of this list i have. It's a paragraph of basic 56 Clipper Deluxe and Super specs followed by each such model number. Each model number has VN's listed after it.

The same pattern of info continues on up the line to the PAt,400 and Caribs.

No owner info is given. It's just a string, of what appears to me, to be survivor VN's for each 56xx model. Altho it makes no sepcific statemnt that they are 'survivors'. Oddly enuf, it does not have 5672 listed at all.

It may have come from somekind a club or other Packard interest in Florida. I don;t know.


Edit. I dug it out. It does list 5672 and 5677. 32 and 27 VN's respectivly.

quote:
"...are accounted for in rosters of the Packard clubs.."

Since clubS is plural can we assume the PAC, PI et-al are all working together to keep a roster??? I have always been under the impression that the clubs worked independently of each other.

No, you can't assume that, PI and PAC are still, much to the detriment of the hobby, somewhat antogonistic. You've got to read both clubs directories, and cull out those listings for members who belong to both. And if your considering a model which is a CCCA classic, you've got to go thru the exercise yet one more time with their directory.

One of the drawbacks to this is that some members with very large collections don't list all their cars, and some don't list any. It's an imprecise method, but what's the alternative given what we have to work with?