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If you were to hazard a guess as to how many Packards are left - taking into account those parked in barns, garages, warehouses, outside, or wherever - what would be your guess?

100,000? Am I low or high?...

You might try searching this site for this as it's come up before and gotten a bit of interesting chatter. I'd say your estimate is MUCH too high, more likely in the range of 15,000 give or take (i.e., about 1% of the total produced). I believe the various clubs like PI, PAC, AACA and CCCA can account for about 5,000 in the hands of hobbyists, and maybe twice that many elsewhere. Others well-versed in the Packard end of the hobby have suggested closer to 10,000.

Last time I recall discussing this, someone suggested that the big national vendors like Kanters know how many are left and that's how they make decisions on parts, etc. I've discussed this with Dan Kanter and that thought is just pure rubbish - they can only guess, just as we do.

I would not know how to hazard a guess but I would just say I think it is more than we might think would exist after over 50 years. When I look at all the Packards for sale on eBay Motors alone in various states of repair I am amazed. I think a lot more people thought highly of their Packards and stashed them away than we might think.
Ken

10% of each model year survives after the first 50 years. It reduces 1% for every decade that passes after the first 50.

I am guessing there are alot more Packards still out there that are 1948-58 model years.

I think that Pre-war Packards are getting increasingly scarce that haven't been restored atleast once. With the occasional barn find, or collector stockpile it is extremely hard to find original restoration candidates.



Edit: I meant to say 10% reduction every decade after 50 years, not 1%

10% of each model year survives after the first 50 years. It reduces 1% for every decade that passes after the first 50.

If I understand your hypothesis, you're saying that of cars 100 years old, 5% remain. Seems unrealistic, it's probably more like 1/10 of 1% or even less, given the scrap drives in two World Wars. What was the source for that mathematic method of survivor estimate?

I thought the cover of my old Kanter catalog stated that 50% of all of the Packards ever produced were still on the road today?

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I typed 1% but meant to type 10%.

Example:

10,000 of car X manufactured in 1911. with a 50% gone by 1961 the 10% per year loss rate is quite reasonable.(to me anyways)

by 1961 there are 5,000 left
by 1971 there are 4,500 left
by 1981 there are 4,000 left
by 1991 there are 3,500 left
by 2001 there are 3,000 left
by 2011 there are 2,500 left

Now 2,500 cars on the planet spread out globally is a completely reasonable number. For example, that is 50 cars per state in the U.S.

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Just an equation I thought was reasonable. I wouldn't apply it to the Big 3 manufactured cars. There are always exceptions I am sure.

I thought the cover of my old Kanter catalog stated that 50% of all of the Packards ever produced were still on the road today?

If in fact you did see that on a Kanter catalog, it was a tongue-in-cheek comment, that would be more than three-quarters of a million Packards.

Actually they claimed that over 53% of all Packards built since 1899 are still in use. I remember being so impressed when I read that. 53% seems too precise for an off the cuff comment.

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For the US, 50 per state average seems very low. My father has 11 Packards himself. With his local (southeastern PA) club buddies, they've easily got 30 to 40 together.