Packard Forum Index » Pre-War (1899-1942)

Hi

In my ongoing study of how Packard was affected by the Depression, model years and production quantities being to make my head swim. So, here is a quick and dirty graph I drew to make comparisons easier. While it's crude, and not to scale, it works well. Your comments welcome.

The production totals are those found in the Standard Catalog of Independents: The Struggle to Survive Among Giants, Edited by Ron Kowalke, published by Krause.

Steve

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Thanks for sharing the graph. There is a type of graph paper known as Log-Log scaled paper. Graaphing on Logg log paper tends to streighten out curves or sharp occilations in data. Not sure graaphing the data on log log paper would be of any terrific analytical help but would be anotherr representation to ponder.
Note that your verticle production units scale is somewhat representative of a log-log scale. But the horizzontal year scale is not logarithmic.

Hi

I considered Log-Log but it didn't seem to fit this purpose, plus the direct if crude approach got the job done.

A couple observations: while the trend was in free-fall, still the slight improvement for total 320 ci 1932 models suggest prior Standard Eight owners were trading in for the Light Eight 900. Even as the Depression worsened, those who had been Packard owners were determined to remain so...just with a less expensive model. No Buicks or Chryslers for them. Another revelation was once the 385 ci models hit the 1300 unit level, they stayed there for the most part.

What must have been terribly disappointing to management was the response to the restyled 1935 line. They didn't even match 1934 sales model-for-model and receded again for 1936. 1937 was an anomaly and a cruel one, encouraging with such a major improvement only to be dashed for 1938.

The Twelve looks like the success story in this grim chart. While it never hit high volumes, every year except 1933 and 1939 exceeded the introductory year. And best of all, it didn't plummet to near zero like the Cadillac Sixteen did after the first couple of years.

Steve

Interesting graph. I also did one several years ago for a presentation to the docents at the Blackhawk Automotive Museum. Clearly, the junior cars made up the bulk of production in the 1935-1941 years.

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semi-log turns a power law into a line, but anyway...

I think you have to consider the economic factors, not just attribute sales levels to model acceptance. 1937 was a recovery year but 1938 a recession year. Market share might be more revealing, but it's tricky for Packard once they expanded beyond the luxury market.

I think it's a great aid in demonstrating the pressures Packard was facing. The higher proportional survival rate for the later cars is one reason the present chopping of Packards to make hot rods is a very sad development. However, with the secular decline in the American standard of living a large amount of this stuff is going to get junked anyway. Going straight to the crusher is a more tasteful burial.

Hi

I would like to discover figures on Packard's market penetration for those years. Though, without a breakdown by price segment after the introduction of the 120, it wouldn't reveal how well or poorly the Senior lines faired against the competition.

Anyone know where to find those market penetration statistics for 1920's through WWII?

Steve

The last page gives some information on registered Packards,
packardinfo.com/xoops/html/downloads/SC/SL-VOL16NO10.pdf

Any idea of how this compared to production?