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Jim Pearsall probably has the most extensive set of data on surviving Classic-era Packards and he is probably the best authority on this aspect of these cars. His data was used in my study of the thief-proof numbers. To pick another example as Fred has done, for the 1934 Eight, style 1100 (5 pass. sedan on 129" wheelbase), the actual number made is unknown but it was the highest production model of the year (total production in 1934 was 8000 units) and the highest sequential # known is 25XX, meaning about 2500 made. About 75 survivors were known of perhaps 25 years ago, probably the # is more like 100 today. The other Eight chassis and body styles, as well as the Super 8s and Twelves, probably have higher survival percentages, though much lower production.

Anyone with an interest in the survivors of a particular year and model would do well to contact Jim.

It would be interesting to plot survival rates with two lines: one based on data of survivors, another based on a predictive model of survivability (sp.?), and then see how the two plots compare.

(o{I}o)

JW, are you volunteering? You've got my vote to proceed! Looking forward to the results. But to be the most meaningful, it would be nice to see it not only year-to-year, but by model as well. It would make a great publication for PAC, PI or AACA, even CCCA for the Classic era.

O_D, I would if I could but I can't. Not for wanting to do it but my math skills and knowledge are not up to the task. I am sure there are a few out there with the necessary knowledge to do this, but it would be a time consuming job. Maybe someone will volunteer.

"the actual number made is unknown but it was the highest production model of the year (total production in 1934 was 8000 units) and the highest sequential # known is 25XX, meaning about 2500 made."

Since 1934 8 style 1100 is known to be the highest production model then that somewhat indicates that production figures for each other model ARE known?????

SO if the production figures for all OTHER models is known then subtract that from the 8000 total production leaving the number of 34 8 style 1100's???? No?

SO if the production figures for all OTHER models is known then....

But they are NOT known, you can only estimate by highest known production#. Remember, Packard kept no records by individual body style and chassis, just by Eight, Super Eight, and Twelve. 1934 had a very prolific range of body styles and chassis - here's a list of each chassis and the # of separate bodies available on it:

1100 - 1
1101 - 11
1102 - 2
1103 - 1
1104 - 11
1105 Std - 2
1105 Dietrich - 5
1105 LeBaron - 3
1106 - 2 (LeBaron roadster and sport coupe)
1107 - 12
1108 std - 2
1108 Dietrich - 6
1108 LeBaron - 3

Not sure what you were getting at, but I think you can see the complexity.