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History repeating??
#1
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Eric Boyle
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Posted on: 2008/7/2 20:16
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Re: History repeating??
#2
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Daniel Leininger
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Turbo

Does this maen they may need to begin thinking beyond SUVs, Hummers, and 3 month profit margins?

DanLhttps://packardinfo.com/xoops/html/uploads/smil3dbd4e29bbcc7.gif

Posted on: 2008/7/3 4:37
[i][size=small][color=000066]Dan'L in SD
41ParPack
First of the Clippers
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Re: History repeating??
#3
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HH56
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You're right. What's the saying "History is bound to repeat itself"?

Obviously, the lesson wasn't learned in the 70's when all the companies got caught the first time. Other nations continued to develop & innovate. They now build considerably more fuel efficient cars and some countries are almost self sufficient in various forms of fuel & alternative energy.

After 12 years or so, with the memory fading, our politicians decided this was for private industry and the government shouldn't be involved. Incentives for development in these areas were dropped. Unfortunately, private industry didn't step up to any real degree as long as whatever they made was selling. Well, now what they're making won't sell so they're hurting because there was no development or contingencies.

I read in the paper yesterday, the auto mfg are now saying the higher but greatly relaxed fuel standards enacted in the last year or so are too costly and want them relaxed further. Here we go again.

Posted on: 2008/7/3 9:09
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Re: History repeating??
#4
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Daniel Leininger
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This crisis is NO surprise.

We in the USA are just catching up with the global market competing for oil. Most of Europe and much of the rest of world has been living with $5 to $10 per gal/litre gasoline for 20 years and more. That info is available to anyone - presidents, citizens, auto manufacturers ... etc.

We will drive less. Make less daily trips to the store and more shopping lists for the times we do. Buy less luxuries and probably go into a recession.

But with wind generators, hybrid autos, solar panels on houses maybe we get new growth industries and economic recovery.

Yesterday is over. Packards will still be interesting as machines and art. (I don't plan to get nostalgic about my Chevy Silverado, except as a good Packard puller).

If GM and a 1000 other companies can't think differently, they too could disappear. Their monoploy of subsidiaries and suppliers may have outlived Packard, Nash, Hudson, Studebaker, BUT no one or no corporation is immune to basic 'stupidity.'

I am not trying to be cynical, but these are not bumps in the road. They are the end of a road marked "dead end" 15 years ago.

DanL

Posted on: 2008/7/3 21:22
[i][size=small][color=000066]Dan'L in SD
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Re: History repeating??
#5
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PackardV8
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The current oil issue is just a repeat of the mid-70's. There are definately more lingering proplems than $4, $10 or even $30 per gallon gas. Problems such as the US having lost it's industrial prowess, without which and even with Russian intervention the US and Russia would have lost WWII.

GM and F know what they are doing. They are a US Holding or parent of global auto mfg'ing now. NOT a domestic mfg'er. Gm at $10 and F at $4 has got to be a dirt cheap bargain of the century. If Gm and F go out of bussiness then we will have bigger problems than trying to find a job or a car to drive.

Gm and F have not produced any significant depression era cars recently. About the time they start will signal a 'recovery'. This happened in 1960 with the introduction of Chevy II, Corvair, valiant, falcon, Lancer. They were depression era cars for a depression that never came.

Posted on: 2008/7/3 22:10
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Re: History repeating??
#6
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BH
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I've worked in the automotive industry on-and-off since 1982, but every time I get out, someone pulls me back in - LOL!

I got back in the parts biz with a GM dealer several years ago, and am sorry I ever did. GM makes life anything but easy these days, with one self-serving change after another. As for vehicle production, GM only wants to skim the cream with the most profitable models; however, the problem with that is the market can turn on a dime, but a bloated bureacracy like GM can't. Now they're eleft holding the bag with a bunch of overpriced gas-guzzling pickups and SUVs.

I don't feel sorry for GM in the least, but hope their hourly workers find a job with new factories that foreign automakers will continue to build in this country.

Well, I'll lose a few thou when I dump my remaining shares of GM, but I don't believe that their current top management will be able to turn things around. As George Santayana once said, "those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Of course, as an admitted opportunist, I'll gladly buy back in if I see a sustained improvement to make up my loss.

However, before GM would ever file for bankruptcy, I think you'd see what's left of Chrysler sold off to another foreign carmaker - if it doesn't go back to Daimler through some default.

Posted on: 2008/7/4 11:09
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Re: History repeating??
#7
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HH56
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Packard V8 said a recovery won't start till GM brings on a depression car. Read today they are doing just that- something that gets 35+ and starts around 15K--of course it's a year away so lots can happen. Chrysler is tying up with a Chinese company in some way as well.

It just boggles the mind how thing have changed--just in the last few years and aside from the shortsightedness of so many. In my field, there used to be a dozen US mfg, some that set the standard. Now there are half that, 1 or 2 might be considered technologically capable but the rest are low end types. All the big ones now are foreign (I work for one), and even the one remaining acclaimed US company sources most of its high end stuff overseas but sells with a US label.

That appears to be happening with autos and just about everything else including education. There are a few brilliant young people coming into the field that quickly move to better things but most of those needed to operate the equipment I install can't even figure out the basics. If it isn't done for them automatically, they can't operate it. I'd wager that is true in the auto industry as well.

Sorry for the rant but the fact nothing was learned the first time just hits a sore spot.

Posted on: 2008/7/4 12:46
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Re: History repeating??
#8
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BH
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Well, to update my last post on this matter.

Included in GM's announcement this AM, regarding additional cuts to improve liquidity, several sources are also reporting the suspension of the dividend on their common stock.

Never mind any potential for bankruptcy, having been through such a move with a couple other companies, I dumped the last of my GM stock this AM.

Posted on: 2008/7/15 8:47
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Re: History repeating??
#9
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Dave Kenney
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I don't think GM or Ford will go bankrupt but I do think that they will continue to go offshore to places like Korea, China and India to open plants for that market. They will probably do more of what they have done in the past with the Chevrolet Avio rebadged Suzuki Swift and import cars made more cheaply in those countries and call them Chevs and Pontiacs etc..

Posted on: 2008/7/15 9:01
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Re: History repeating??
#10
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HH56
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I believe Clipper 47's insight. I've driven some GM cars in last few yrs, both upper tier higher end rentals and others, and both disappointments from what I was expecting -- even remembering the dark days of 80s era. When a premiere brand is no better constructed or comfortable than a middle of road import, it surprised me. I read that GM has already tied in with China to some degree so I expect we can look forward to a Chinese Yugo named after a former GM premier model anytime now. Unfortunately, the other US brands are in equally bad condition with their offerings--and people wonder why Japanese models are taking the market.

Posted on: 2008/7/15 9:40
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