Packard Forum Index » V-8 (1955-56)

I like to use a 5% per year decay rate of cars to figure out how many are left in the general sense (running, part cars, etc). Obviously high-dollar and speciality cars are better taken care of, so may not apply (ie Carribeans).

So for example:

If a particular car was made in 1955, and 10,000 units were produced, then by 1956, figure 500 of those 10,000 units would be off the road due to accident, mechanical, theft or other issues. So that leaved 9,500 units.

So in 1957, we apply the 5% rule again. So out of the 9,500 units remaining, and we are left with 9,025 units (475 gone).


So in 1958, we apply the 5% rule again. So out of the 9,025 units remaining, and we are left with 8574 units (rounded up), 451 gone.

So every year until the present, we take the remaining units and multiple by 95% to get the remaining, and keep repeating until we reach the present year. Even though we are still applying the 5% rule, yearly attrition rate get smaller it is calculated based on the number of surviving cars from the previous year.

Why not perfect, it will get you a ballpark estimate of the remaining cars still out there (running, and part cars).

Regarding parts cars, I have the parts from no less than FOUR RHD (Australian) Packards.

Seems sad in a way . . . as these could have survived and be gracing our roads today if circumstances were different. Mine are all 1951 cars. The lone survivor amongst those four cars , namely the only complete / driveable (- well, SOON to be driveable!) car is my Club Sedan, and those appear to be few and far between.

I am surprised at the very small percentage of '51 (and '52) Packards that apparently survive today. Why so small a figure? Is it that they were 'less esteemed' or that they were quite prone to rust? Or is there some other reason?

Ultimately I'm very happy that I have a '51 Club Sedan as it appears that very few exist now. It makes the effort and expense of doing a decent restoration even more worthwhile, although even if 51's were plentiful I would still want to do a good restoration on what is essentially a marque that I love.

Larry51, I think the reason 1951 and 1952 cars have such low survivor rates is in part explainable by the following. For 1953-56, the Caribbeans, built in reasonable volumes, were practically collectibles from the day they were built and thus have a significant impact on the survivor rates for those years. And the 1955/56 models, the "last" Packards and the first V8s, have some special appeal. What model 51 and 52 cars had a special feature or model with the panache to put them in a similar category? Yes, the Pan Americans, but only 4(?) built so not enough to influence the survivor rate. Certainly not the convertibles, they started life as part of the bottom-of-the-line series. And not the Patrician, it was a significant step down in luxury from the Custom 8s which preceded them, and the 53 and 54 Patricians which followed them. In short, the 51-52 cars, while excellent motor cars, were bracketed on both ends by years with more desirable models in the lineup which influenced the desire on the part of some to have an extended life. I know this sounds harsh to those who love the 51-52 cars, and there is a lot to like about them, but as the "collectible car" hobby began in earnest, nothing about them gave them the status to be kept as other than hardworking, solid cars, driven until worn out and discarded.

The number of survivours of ANY collectible or SI item MUST be well known by the parts suppliers. Otherwise they would have no clue as to how to stock their bussines. Its just that damned simple.

I know this sounds harsh to those who love the 51-52 cars, and there is a lot to like about them, but as the "collectible car" hobby began in earnest, nothing about them gave them the status to be kept as other than hardworking, solid cars, driven until worn out and discarded.

IMO, A very well thought out summary. As nice as the 51-2's were, they were considered ordinary cars and outclassed by some competitors products -- luxury from some, performance from others. At the time they were nice dependable transportation.

In years following when the new wore off and they had reached the status of typical used cars, the choice was to preserve or drive till they died. There was not much reason to save them. I know because I was a teenager driving one and things I did to my dad's old 51 in the early 60's should have been prevented -- and probably would have been if it were a Cadillac. Had I only known then what the years have taught.

The number of survivours of ANY collectible or SI item MUST be well known by the parts suppliers. Otherwise they would have no clue as to how to stock their bussines. Its just that damned simple.

I'm afraid that just ain't so. Talk with the two major parts suppliers as I have if you doubt that. It's a simple matter of economics - demand and expectation for a financial return on investment within a reasonable time period. And the demand is based on inquiries from owners, not from some secret inventory of the exact number of survivors.

If you just sold your last of a part and only get requests for 1 every 10 years, would you go back and have them remanufactured in whatever minimum quantity the manufacturer requires with the expectation it would take you 50 years to sell them? If you get enough requests for the 1951-56 gas tank to show you could recover the investment and make a reasonable profit in the foreseeable future, then maybe it's a "go". It's that simple.

Your answer to my question re '51 survivors sounds very plausible O-D. In a sense, that low level of survival works to advantage for those remaining 51-52 cars, by perhaps eventually making them a little more collectable as numbers dwindle further over future years.

I don't think people worry too much about parting 51/52 cars to get parts for the remaining ones, whereas a rarer model would probably be less likely to get 'the chop' to provide parts. 51/52's are by no means 'rare' now but I guess that could change in years to come.

I thought I'm mention that I keep finding more & more V-8 Packards in salvage yards & other places. There's probably more of them than one usually figures. I've also found that to be the case for the older ones too.

I'm going with 8